Determining Your Bankroll

Many sports bettors just make a deposit of as much as they can afford at the book and start betting.  Most likely, they are the 98% that lose money betting.

A common question I get is “How do I decide how much my bankroll should be?”  That is not really the right question to be asking.  Besides, how would anyone but you know what your bankroll should be?

All I can tell you is what I do.  I do not worry about the size of my bankroll, and neither should you.  Instead, I pick an amount of money I want to win for the season in the sport I am betting.

That number is my goal for the season so I know when to STOP betting on the sport.  For example, Let’s say I set my goal to win $1,000 during the 2011 baseball season.  Not coincidentally, my starting bank will be the same amount.

Many times, you can get deposit bonuses from online books that are about 50% of your deposit.  To reach your $1,000 with a 50% deposit bonus would require about a $667 deposit.  If you are so inclined, you can sign up as a sports book affiliate and get rebates by signing up and making deposits through your own links.  Those two tricks can give you a BIG advantage.

The next step is to slice it up into betting units.  It does not matter what I do because everybody is different.  But if you know you only have to double what you started with to be successful, the bigger the unit the quicker it can happen.  On the flip side, you can be wiped out by a bad streak if your units is to high a percentage of the bankroll.

The amount you use for a betting unit will be determined by what you feel your systems chances are of busting a bankroll of X units, versus doubling the amount.  If you have a good system that rarely gets down more than 10 Units, you can slice your bank into 10% units.  If you are looking for safety, you can use 20 units instead of 10.  It would take a really bad system and some really bad luck to bust that bankroll.

As an alternative, you could also start with a bank twice as big as your winning goal and shoot for a 50% return on your bankroll for the season.

The forgotten secret to sports betting is to know when you have won so you can quit a winner.  Who cares if you had doubled your bankroll midway through the season if you have lost it all by the seasons end?

Most people lose because they don’t know when they win.  Betting is their goal,  not winning.  They determine their bankroll based on what they can lose, rather than what they expect to win.

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DIY Sports Betting Systems can help you win, but only if that is your goal.

If there is one element lacking from sports betting information on the web it is the truth. It has been overwhelmed by the over hyped sales pitches of con artist such as the guy who claims to be John Morrison. Why settle for the truth when the lie is so appealing?

One good reason to seek the truth is to make some money from your bets. There is no such thing as a sure bet and the scammers know it. They are not sports betting experts. They are experts in hype and manipulating your emotions to make you buy a dream they know can not be delivered. But that is not what will lead to profit for the serious sports bettor.

The truth is, money can be had by the smart bettor. They will build many small systems that win 55 to 60 percent. They will place a lot of bets, and win a few more than they lose. That is the key to making money.

You do not need to win 97% of your bets. Most people win less than half of the time, but that is not enough. If you show me someone who can pick 6 out of 10 winners, I will show you someone who can make a very good living doing nothing but placing bets on sporting events.

With the right tools and instruction on using them, anybody can make a profit betting on sports. With enough small systems in place that win more than 55% of the time, the profits can eventually get big and multiply with every system you add.

If you want to win the first step is learning the truth. Once you can accept it for what it is, all you need is to find a winner to learn from. Once you know the right things to do and how to do them, the sky is the limit.

And that is the truth about sports betting.

Many people have heard of the sports betting systems that claim to win 97% of their bets. They are being sold all over the internet for about 200 bucks.

I will not comment on the systems other than to say that they all use progressive betting and pose a risk of a fairly substantial loss when they do lose a bet.

A perfect betting system is not required. You don’t have to win anywhere near 97% of your bets to do very well as a professional sports bettor. You are far better off accepting a great system as one that will win two out of three games for you consistently.

Building a sports betting system starts with a very specific situation that produces an advantage one way or the other. Home field is probably the best place to start.

From there you should find either a particular stat that ties into the home field advantage. Perhaps a motivational factor that is present in the game can be added.

The key is to pick a few factors related to your basic situation that have shown to be consistent indicators of an increased probability of a certain result.

It’s not really that difficult to hit 60% once you have a basic system that gives you a consistent edge. All it takes is to find a couple of consistencies that seem to indicate a win or a loss to occur.

If you are going to bet on sports, you really owe it to yourself to learn how to develop your own betting systems. Or would you rather waste endless hours looking at random stats?

If you are going to make money betting on sports, it is a certainty that you will need at least one reliable sports betting system. There is no quicker way to lose your bankroll than placing willy nilly hunch bets with varying amount wagered each time.

Rather than inventing their own system, many bettors will avail themselves of one of the many betting systems available on the internet. Some are free, others cost a small fortune.

From the Sports Betting Champ to the new Dr. Jays 100% can’t lose systems, near perfection and unlimited winnings is the sales pitch. But if experience is any guide, a can not lose system, can in the real world, lose. And the losses can be extreme for some of the systems.

I am not trying to steer you away from the systems. Only to give you fair warning that they are never as good as advertised. Yes, it is possible to lose money with a 100%, sure thing never loses betting system. If that were not true it would not be gambling, now would it?

But the best use for those 97% systems is to use them to understand how to identify the situations that increase your probabilities of winning on a straight bet. Once you understand how they work, you can build your own systems. If one were to use progressive betting of 3 progressions on any three games, in any sport, that have a 60% probability of winning, they will approach the 97% win rate promised by other systems.

Buying a sports betting system can be a good investment if used wisely. But it is no good to learn a million different progressive betting systems. You need to develop systems to pick straight bet winners if you want be a winner betting on sports.

You can’t look for a sports betting system without seeing the ones that promise you will win 97% of your bets. That leaves many with the question of whether that kind of a win rate is even possible.

Whenever you see any system that promises such a high percentage of wins, it is without question one that uses progressive betting. Most of them require you make up to three wagers per “bet”. You never bet on one game, but are always trying to pick one winner out of a series of games.

When you look at it like that, you can see how your odds will greatly increase. However, the risk increases along with each bet while the odds remain consistent.

Lets examine how you could achieve a 97% win rate on all of your “bets” like the hyped up systems do.

If you were to bet on three coin tosses, choosing heads for all three flips, you would have an 87% chance of winning at least one. That is the magic of progressive betting. By a simple progression of three, you can take the odds of winning the “bet” from 50/50 to 87%.

A win rate of 95% would result if you had a probability of winning of 60% for each game. At 66% probability per game, you hit the magic win rate number of 97% with a three game progression.

The problem is that you can not accurately estimate your probabilities for any particular game. It only happens once. The players will feel and act differently today than they do tomorrow.

That is why all betting systems are based on situations and not specific games. Over time, certain situations have been shown to give the bettor a higher probability of a win. And those situations happen in every sport, so a system can be built.

So to answer the question, Is a 97% win rate betting on sports possible? With progressive betting, anything is possible. But it is highly risky to play that way.

You would be far better off to build yourself a system that can pick straight bet winners than to risk it all on progressive betting.

The Sports Betting Champ is a sports betting system put out by John Morrison. The system claims a 97% win rate and promises instant wealth for those who buy it. But is any of it for real?

To find out, we will need to look at the systems and their best use. We will start by looking at the baseball system for the Major Leagues. Here it is in a nutshell. The system is a bet that a team will not get swept in a series twice in a row by the same team. That happens about three percent of the time if you believe the claims of the system. I don’t like baseball enough to sit down and go over years of stats.

Each “bet” is really up to three different bets, one on each game of the series. As soon as a win occurs, you quit betting the series. Three looses and you lose. Depending on the odds you get, which are usually bad, each loss can cost 15 or more units.

The first loss requires you more than double the bet. The second loss requires you more than double the second bet. All in search of a single betting unit. The NBA system is similar to the baseball system. The base is three out of conference road games in a row for the team. Your bet is that they will win one of them.

Does it allow you to win 97% of the time? Yes, within its vague meaning. You can win one out of the three bets 97% of the time. However, with each loss costing around 15 betting units, you can never win any where near the promised amounts of money.

The reason is simple. You have to be able to cover the third bet if you need to make it. If your unit is $10, you will need a bankroll of at least $150 and be willing to risk it all on one bet seeking a return of $10. To try to win $100 means you must be willing to risk up to $1,500. You can never bet enough to make any serious money with the system unless you already have serious money and are willing to risk it for a comparatively small return.

There is a much better way to go about winning than that. Just make sure you always bet an edge of 53% or more and place as many of those bets as you can afford. You will end up winning from the books in the same way the casino wins from players with table games. By exploiting a known, small mathematical edge that guarantees a profit.

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